Possible options for the Vitacoin project’s future (calculation of estimated capitalization*)*all forecasts presented in this document are theoretical; None of this is a guarantee/promise of any income/benefit.
- Optimistic scenario of project development depending on the number of users;
- Optimistic scenario of project development depending on Healthcare market assumption;
- Optimistic scenario of project development depending on total amount of received revenue;
- Pessimistic scenario of project development in the case of objective impossibility of creating a medicine or technology capable of significantly prolonging life;
- The pessimistic scenario of project development in connection with creation of the required drug or technology later than the terms indicated in the roadmap.
Each user chooses in which script to believe. We are sure that the very fact of the Vitacoin project’s existence, as well as an increase in the number of people involved in it, are already able to prolong life.
Optimistic scenario of project development depending on the number of users
By increasing the number of active users, the project capitalization can reach approximately $ 1 trillion (with 5 billion active users).
Based on the financial parameters of social networks (for example, Facebook), such as revenue ($ 40.6 billion for 2017), capitalization ($ 408 billion), and the number of active users in the amount of 2.2 billion, we can calculate that about $ 200 per month are the contribution of one user to the capitalization of Facebook. Extrapolating these values linearly in both directions, we get a graph of dependence of capitalization on the users of the site (in million people, lower axis), who visit the site at least once a month.
If our calculations are correct, then with 5 billion active users, the project’s capitalization can reach approximately $ 1 trillion through advertising and services sold.
Optimistic scenario of project development depending on Healthcare market assumption
The capitalization of the global Healthcare market in 2017 is estimated at about $ 46.7 trillion. This amount was obtained by averaging the revenue and profit of different companies, as well as data from the World Bank and Fidelity. Presumably, the capitalization of this sector will increase at an average annual growth rate of 10% (based on average inflation rates during periods of soft monetary policy, as well as average growth in Healthcare capitalization). This means that under the condition of maintaining such rates by 2079, it can reach $ 17,205 trillion (or $ 17.2 quadrillion).
If we assume that in 62 years there will be a technology or therapy that will offset all the effects of aging and replace the existing treatment, the estimated capitalization of the project can be calculated through the percentage of the total market that Vitacoin replaces with its technologies..
The share increases linearly by 2% every year after 12 years of development (starting in 2030) and appearance of the first significant results available to everyone on the market.
As a result, by 2080, Vitacoin will occupy up to 90% of the Heathcare market and its capitalization will reach $ 17,205 trillion.
The anti-aging agent developed as a result of the project implementation will effectively fight most diseases and will eventually replace most existing drugs. Thus, the capitalization of the Vitacoin project may amount to 10% of global GDP.
|1||Global GDP, $||77 500 000 000 000|
|2||Planet Population, people||7 500 000 000|
|3||Per capita GDP, $||10 333|
|4||Health expenditure (10% of GDP)||7 750 000 000 000|
|5||Company cost in P/E = 24, $||186 000 000 000 000|
|6||Outlay, $||10 000 000 000 000|
|7||Total growth in %||1860|
|8||Implementation time, year||60|
|9||Growth during the year in %||31|
Optimistic scenario of project development depending on total amount of received revenue
You need to understand the full scale of this project and its duration. We estimate the total amount of funds needed for Vitacoin development at $ 10 trillion with a project implementation period of 20 to 60 years. This assessment is based on the ongoing costs of research and development by leading pharmaceutical corporations, despite the fact that their goals are specific, highly specialized drugs.
|Possibility № 1||Hypothetical benefit in project implementation period, years|
|Stages of project development||Amount of funds raised, million $||Discount, %/td>||5||10||20||30||40||50||60|
|Possibility № 2|
|Stages of project development||Amount of funds raised, million $||Project realization period||Growth of funds raised, % per annum||Estimated amount of expenses of one project participant, $||Number of project participants, people||Fund value of one registered project user, $||Number of registered users, people|
|1||5 000 000||5||550||1000||5 000||200||1 000|
|2||20 000 000||10||80||1000||20 000||200||10 000|
|3||100 000 000||15||100||1000||100 000||200||25 000|
|4||500 000 000||20||100||1000||500 000||200||250 000|
|5||1 000 000 000||25||40||1000||1 000 000||200||2 500 000|
|6||5 000 000 000||30||100||1000||5 000 000||200||5 000 000|
|7||10 000 000 000||35||40||1000||10 000 000||200||10 000 000|
|8||50 000 000 000||40||100||1000||50 000 000||200||50 000 000|
|9||100 000 000 000||40||1000||1000||100 000 000||200||100 000 000|
|10||500 000 000 000||50||100||1000||500 000 000||200||250 000 000|
|11||1 000 000 000 000||52||100||1000||1 000 000 000||200||500 000 000|
|12||1 000 000 000 000||54||50||1000||1 000 000 000||200||1 000 000 000|
|13||2 500 000 000 000||56||125||1000||2 500 000 000||200||2 500 000 000|
|14||5 000 000 000 000||58||100||1000||5 000 000 000||200||5 000 000 000|
|15||10 000 000 000 000||60||100||1000||10 000 000 000||200||10 000 000 000|
We will suspend Vitacoin as soon as we manage to create and market the appropriate drug or technology.
Pessimistic scenario of project development in the case of objective impossibility to create a medicine or technology capable of significantly prolonging life
For reasons beyond our control, the declared drug or technology may not be created, even with all the effort involved. Therefore, it may happen that all the money spent does not bring the desired result. But even in this case, we are confident that we will make a significant contribution to the development of humankind. We will approximate the moment of a radical life prolongation.
Pessimistic scenario of project development in connection with creation of the required drug or technology later than the terms indicated in the roadmap
In addition, one cannot rule out possibility that the stated maximum project implementation period of 60 years may not be sufficient for a significant leap in the development of scientific progress needed to achieve this goal. Therefore, it is possible that a medicine or technology capable of significantly prolonging a person’s life will be created, for example, in 100-300 years, and we will not be able to use it. However, even in this case, we will create a foundation for future generations.
Expected changes when the project achieves its goal
- Exponential growth of all areas of the economy around the world due to an abundance of labor resources and new technologies.
- A growth in labor resources and the active phase of life will allow the world economy to grow by 10% or more, rather than 3% per year (as at the moment).
- Rapid growth of technology will lead to the emergence of new areas of production and services.
- Population increase will cause an increased demand for residential and commercial real estate; it will become a multiplier for the construction market.
- The age group of the population will continue to grow and will become the main driving force in democratic states.
- Humanistic sentiments in the world will prevail, military conflicts will come to naught due to the understanding that life is the most important value.
- Redistribution of budgets of various countries from health and defense to cultural and educational areas.
- Pension programs will be modified, and pensions themselves will be eliminated, since the person will be active for a long time and will be able to manage funds for maintaining his livelihood as a rentier.
- The Earth’s population will grow much stronger due to a decrease in natural loss.
- There will be new professions, as well as a huge workforce.
Who have nothing to lose, always have a chance to win.